PGR is currently working on a global array of projects that straddle the spheres of political risk analysis, investigative research and strategic communications.
Here is an overview of some of PGR’s current projects:
The Post-October 7 Middle East Regional Order
As tenuous ceasefires hold in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, and Syria adjusts to its post-Assad future, the Middle East regional system is in a state of flux. The big unanswered question is: What Next?
This project explains the shattering of the illusion of stability in inter-state relations in the Middle East on October 7, 2023, and assesses the impacts of a year of turmoil in the MENA regional system.
This project has three primary dimensions
The Future of Syria
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been toppled and a Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led government has taken its place.
Despite this seismic transformation, a low-intensity civil war between HTS and Kurdish militias persists, as does the threat of Daesh-ISIS. While sanctions restrict its reconstruction potential, Syria has emerged as a battleground for geopolitical influence between regional and extra-regional stakeholders.
PGR is advising public and private sector stakeholders on the risks and opportunities associated with Syria’s reconstruction process, trends in external power involvement in Syria and Syria’s potential to transition to a stable democratic future.
Evolving Regional Power Dynamics in the Middle East
From the weakening of Iran’s network of proxy militias to Saudi Arabia’s emergence as a mediator between the United States and Russia, the post-October 7 security crisis in the Middle East has reshaped the regional order.
While the January 2021 AlUla Agreement that ended the Qatar crisis and the Abraham Accords have endured, the region stands on the precipice of profound geopolitical change. Continued attacks on Red Sea shipping by Houthi militias and heightened U.S.-Iran tensions create risks for investors, while rival post-energy modernization strategies and diplomatic initiatives cultivate windows of opportunity.
PGR makes sense of the evolving positions of regional powers in the Middle East and informs its clients about the risks and opportunities emanating from them.
Multipolarity in the Middle East
Since the mid-1980s, major regional powers in the Middle East have expanded their outreaches to non-Western powers. This trend has accelerated over the past decade as the footprints of Russia, China and India have markedly expanded in the Middle East.
This trend has created new investment opportunities spanning from renewable energy to artificial intelligence but also exposed Middle East countries to potential U.S. secondary sanctions and dragged them into the U.S.-China advanced technology war.
PGR provides cutting-edge strategic intelligence on multipolarity’s rise in the Middle East and helps investors and governments manage the risks and opportunities presented by great power competition in the MENA region. It also provides tailored market entry strategies for companies seeking to enter hotspots for geopolitical competition.
North Korea’s Involvement in the Ukraine War and Russia-North Korea Security Cooperation
Since the fall of 2023, North Korea has converted its solidarity with Russia’s war against Ukraine into arms deliveries and troop deployments in Kursk.
North Korea has received its first high attrition combat experience since the 1950-53 Korean War and gained access to hard currency and new military technologies. This development alarms Western and Indo-Pacific stakeholders but remains poorly understood.
PGR provides in-depth research on North Korea’s mutual defence partnership with Russia and facilitates exchanges between Ukraine and South Korea on managing the threat it poses.
The Evolving Political Risk Landscape in the South Caucasus and Central Asia
Due to the perceived erosion of Russian influence, political unrest in Georgia and incremental progress towards peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the South Caucasus and Central Asia are in a liminal geopolitical moment.
Despite its abundance of fossil fuel wealth, the region is also seeking to emerge as a renewable energy corridor in Eurasia.
Through in-depth country-specific consultations, PGR helps investors and governments navigate risks and find opportunities in the South Caucasus and Central Asia
Managing Instability in Africa
Over the past decade, Africa has faced spiralling instability and political violence. Civil wars in Libya, Sudan and the DRC have triggered untold human suffering, while extremism has fuelled coup d’etats and exacerbated state fragility in the Sahel. Even seemingly stable democracies like South Africa and Nigeria have not been immune to the turmoil.
This tumult has corresponded with a epochal geopolitical transformation. The decline of French influence in Africa and the U.S.’s power projection travails have facilitated the expanded influence of China, Russia, Turkey, Iran and the Gulf monarchies in Africa.
PGR is currently carrying out in-depth research on the stabilization of Libya, the ongoing intra-military civil war in Sudan and escalating security crisis in the DRC. PGR is also helping African and extra-regional governments find solutions to the turmoil and assisting companies in mutually beneficial development and reconstruction projects.